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Statewide Plan for Higher Education 2004-2012
Appendix B
COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
These projections assume that institutions, sectors, the Regents, and other participants in higher education in New York take no steps that would change them.
Findings
- The projections of New York State high school graduates show
increased graduates until 2009. However, full-time undergraduate
enrollments increase until 2012.
- In most years, there was a projected year-to-year increase of both part-time
and full-time undergraduates in every sector (Table
B1).
- Except for part-time graduate students at SUNY, an increase in graduate
students is projected in every sector (Table
B2).
- Full-time undergraduate enrollment will grow fastest at SUNY. The independent
sector will have the second fastest growth, followed by proprietary institutions
and CUNY (Table
B2).
Table B1, Headcount (Full and Part-Time)
| Sector | 2003 | 2013 | Change 2003-13 |
% Change 2003-13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State University of New York | 409,886 | 432,267 | 23,381 | 5.5% |
| The City University of New York | 212,711 | 216,607 | 3,896 | 1.8% |
| Independent Institutions | 443,398 | 460,291 | 16,893 | 3.8% |
| Proprietary Colleges | 46,394 | 46,300 | -94 | -0.2% |
| Statewide Total | 1,112,389 | 1,155,465 | 43,076 | 3.9% |
| Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2004. | ||||
Table B2
| Sector | Undergraduate | Graduate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Time | Part-Time | Full-Time | Part-Time | |
| State University of New York | 10.7% | 0.1% | 3.3% | -0.3% |
| The City University of New York | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| Independent Institutions | 8.1% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Proprietary Colleges | 5.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Statewide Total | 8.4% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003. | ||||
Table B3
| Regents Region | Undergraduate | Graduate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Time | Part-Time | Full-Time | Part-Time |
|
| Western | 3.3% | -4.3% | 2.2% | -2.8% |
| Genesee Valley | 3.6% | -2.3% | 3.0% | -0.7% |
| Central | 7.5% | -2.8% | 3.0% | -1.4% |
| Northern | -0.4% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Northeast | 6.2% | -2.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Mid-Hudson | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| New York City | 6.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Long Island | 20.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Statewide | 8.2% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003. | ||||
Conclusions
- Overall, undergraduate and graduate enrollment will grow
until 2012, statewide. After 2012, enrollments will decline
slightly (Chart
B1).
- Institutions drawing full-time undergraduates substantially from three
downstate regions (Mid-Hudson, Long Island, and New York City) will
have the fastest growth in full-time undergraduate enrollment. These
three regions will account for 78 percent of the projected growth in
total enrollments, yet they have only 68 percent of the total State
population (New York State Statistical Year Book, 2001). This results
from projected different rates of population growth by region (Tables B1 and B3 and
Chart B1).
As a result of the projected growth patterns, all upstate regions will
see their share of the higher education market drop, or grow at a much
slower rate than downstate regions. The upstate regions are not necessarily
losing population; their population growth may be slower than the three
downstate regions' growth.
- Changes in enrollment are not constant across sectors, types of students, and regions of enrollment. (Tables B1, B2, and B3). The growth rate of part-time graduate students enrolled in the Western region will decline by 2.8 percentage points, while full-time undergraduate enrollment in the region will grow by 3.3 percent.
Assumptions and Caveats
This model highlights the effects of general demographic changes on future enrollment at colleges and universities. Such variables as participation rates, survival rates, and market shares of individual colleges and universities were held constant for the projection period. No attempt was made to assess and incorporate the effects of possible changes in economic conditions, student aid funding, institutional fiscal resources, admissions policies, cultural or socioeconomic changes in the population, or other factors. Since these variables were held constant, the model does not predict significant shifts in sector or institutional market shares.
The model does not address certain shifts in population characteristics/elements. For example, while members of minority groups constitute an increasing share of the State's population, at present we are not able to identify specific changes in minority enrollment in colleges and universities. Fundamental demographic shifts of this nature may be addressed at a later time. The model does address the nature of overall changes in the number and distribution of prospective students in the State. For example, we can identify in some detail the consequences of relatively greater population growth downstate. It means that the Mid-Hudson, New York City, and Long Island regions will contribute more of the population enrolled in colleges and universities than they have in the past (Table B4). For example, Table B4 projects the number of part-time undergraduates from New York City to more than double by 2013.
Table B4
(Contribution by region to overall projected growth by type of student)
| Regents Region | Undergraduate | Graduate | Total Headcount |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-Time | Part-Time | Full-Time | Part-Time | |||||||
| No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | |
| Western | 2,086 | 3.8 | -603 | -26.9 | 166 | 7.4 | -217 | -12.6 | 1,432 | 2.4 |
| Genesee Valley | 1,856 | 3.4 | -455 | -20.3 | 133 | 5.9 | -44 | -2.5 | 1,490 | 2.5 |
| Central | 6,587 | 12.1 | -412 | -18.4 | 316 | 14.0 | -110 | -6.4 | 6,381 | 10.5 |
| Northern | -49 | -0.1 | 29 | 1.3 | 47 | 2.1 | 8 | 0.5 | 35 | 0.1 |
| Northeast | 4,035 | 7.4 | -557 | -24.8 | 157 | 7.0 | 177 | 10.2 | 3,812 | 6.3 |
| Mid-Hudson | 8,812 | 16.2 | 953 | 42.5 | 125 | 5.5 | 390 | 22.6 | 10,280 | 16.9 |
| New York City | 15,584 | 28.6 | 2,317 | 103.3 | 929 | 41.2 | 1,248 | 72.2 | 20,078 | 33.0 |
| Long Island | 15,635 | 28.7 | 972 | 43.3 | 384 | 17.0 | 277 | 16.0 | 17,268 | 28.4 |
| Statewide | 54,546 | 100.0 | 2,244 | 100.0 | 2,257 | 100.0 | 1,729 | 100.0 | 60,776 | 100.0 |
| Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003. | ||||||||||
Chart B1
Enrollment Projection Methods and Definition of Terms
Methods
The method this model uses involves six major steps repeated in varying ways for each enrollment group: full- or part-time undergraduates, graduate students, and first-professional degree students. The steps were:
- Collating historical enrollment and gathering or developing high school graduate and population projections;
- Calculating historical and projected participation rates;
- Calculating projected pools of students in each of the eight Regents Higher Education Regions;
- Calculating projected market shares of each institution for each regional pool;
- Distributing projected student pools to each institution; and
- Using cohort survival data from each degree-granting institution to
estimate the total enrollment of full-time undergraduates.
Definition of Terms
Enrollment data
The model used four years of historical enrollment data by institution
for the projection. It also included two years of enrollments by institution
with student region of origin. Numbers of high school graduates by county
were projected for the years 2003 to 2013. This projection involved
obtaining enrollment figures for first grade through 12th grade for
the school years 1998-2002. Grade progression rates were calculated
for each of the four historical years and used to develop projected
grade progression ratios by county. Finally, the latest Census projections
from Cornell Statistical Services for each county by age group to the
year 2013 were used in conjunction with predicted high school graduates.
Participation rates
rrefer to the proportion of a population that attends colleges and
universities in New York State. Rates are calculated for specific age
groups, student levels, and attendance levels in each geographical/regional
pool.
Projection of student pools
Multiplying a projected age group's population by its projected participation
rate resulted in projection of a total enrolled student pool. For full-time,
first-time undergraduates (incoming freshmen), the age groups were recent
high school graduates, 20 through 24 year olds, and 25 through 29 year
olds. Those used in projecting the part-time undergraduate and graduate
student pools were 15 through 19, 20 through 24, 25 through 34, 35 through
49, and 50+.
Institutional market share
was calculated by dividing each institution's actual enrollments by
the total statewide enrollment for students from each regional pool.
Each college had market shares calculated for each type of student it
enrolls. Therefore, a market share was assigned to every institution
for every age group and geographic pool of students.
Distribution of the projected student pools
Projected student pools were distributed by multiplying each institution's
projected share of each type of enrolled student by the projected pool
of that type of student.
Cohort survival
The use of cohort techniques for full-time, first-time undergraduates
(incoming freshmen) involved calculating a survival rate unique to each
institution. This rate was applied to incoming freshmen to generate
the number of continuing full-time undergraduates.
Appendix C
Acknowledgement
We would also like to thank our colleagues in the State Education Department who spent countless hours to capture the best thinking of all partners and to integrate it into the Plan.
Byron Connell, Team Leader
Theresa Czapary
Celia B. Diamond
James Donsbach
Jacqueline A. Kane
Linnea LoPresti
Robert F. McHugh
Barbara D. Meinert
Shannon Roberson
Glenwood L. Rowse
Margaret Watrous
Betty Zhou
Mei Zhou