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New York State College and University
 Enrollment Projections, 2003 to 2013

Based on historical enrollment data through fall 2002, this model projects New York State degree-credit enrollment by level of student and category of institution for the years 2003 to 2013.  See Page 2 for notes on methodology.

Findings

  • If population patterns by age group exert the key influence on future enrollments, total enrollment may increase by 61,748 students or 5.6 percent in the next 10 years (Table 1). All sectors - State University of New York (SUNY), City University of New York (CUNY), independent and proprietary institutions - are expected to share in this increase.

  • The latest projections of New York State high school graduates show an increase until 2009. Full-time undergraduate enrollments continue to increase, however, until 2012, due to a short lag time as high school graduates feed into college ranks.

Table 1  Total Headcount Enrollment Projections by Sector, 2003-2013

Sector

2003

2013

Change
2003-13
     

 #

 %
State University of New York
404,833
432,267
27,434
6.8%
City University of New York
208,678
216,607
7,929
3.8%
Independent Institutions
436,104

460,291

24,187
5.5%
Proprietary Colleges
44,102
46,300
2,198
5.0%
Statewide Total
1,093,717
1,155,606
61,748
5.6%
Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

  • Small, steady year-to-year increases are projected for part-time and full-time undergraduates in every sector for most years.

  • Full-time graduate enrollment may grow slightly during the next ten years, while  part-time graduate enrollment may decrease slightly in the SUNY sector (Table 2).

Table 2
Statewide Projected Percentage Changes in Enrollment, 2003-2013

Sector

Undergraduate

 Graduate

Full-Time

Part-Time

Full-Time

Part-Time
State University of New York
10.7%
0.1%
3.3%
- 0.3%
City University of New York
4.9%
2.7%
1.9%
2.0%
Independent Institutions
8.1%

0.6%

2.9%
2.1%
Proprietary Colleges
5.7%
1.7%
1.9%
1.0%
Statewide Total
8.4%
1.0%
2.9%
1.6%

Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

 

  • Population trends most dramatically impact full-time undergraduate enrollment in State University colleges, with a projected increase of 10.7 percent. All other sectors show lower growth rates based on the regions from which they historically draw their students.


Table 3
 Percent Change in Enrollment by Regents Region, 2003-2013

Regents Region

Undergraduate

Graduate

Full-Time

Part-Time

Full-Time

Part-Time
Western
3.3%
- 4.3%
2.2%
- 2.8%
Genesee Valley
3.6%
- 2.3%
3.0%
- 0.7%
Central
7.5%

-2.8%

3.0%
- 1.4%
Northern
- 0.4%
1.1%
5.2%
1.3%
Northeast
6.2%
- 2.2%
3.2%
2.3%
Mid-Hudson
14.8%
3.5%
4.3%
4.6%
New York City
6.7%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
Long Island
20.5%
3.1%
4.4%
1.5%
Statewide
8.2%
1.0%
2.9%
1.6%

Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

Conclusions

  • Overall, undergraduate enrollment grows until 2012 and then declines slightly. Graduate enrollment (especially full-time) grows minimally over the entire projection period.


Table 4
Proportion of Growth by Region, 2003-2013

[Contribution by region to overall projected growth, by type of student]

Regents
Region

Full-Time
Undergraduate

Part-Time
Undergraduate

Full-Time Graduate

Part-Time
Graduate
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Western
2,086
3.8
-603
-26.9
166
7.4
-217
-12.6
Genesee Valley
1,856
3.4
-455
-20.3
133
5.9
-44
-2.5
Central
6,587
12.1
-412
-18.4
316
14.0
-110
-6.4
Northern
-49
-0.1
29
1.3
47
2.1
8
0.5
Northeast
4,035
7.4
-557
- 24.8
157
7.0
177
10.2
Mid-Hudson
8,812
16.2
953
42.5
125
5.5
390
22.6
New York City
15,584
28.6
2,317
103.3
929
41.2
1,248
72.2
Long Island
15,635
28.7
972
43.3
384
17.0
277
16.0
Statewide
54,546
100.0
2,244
100.0
2,257
100.0
1,729
100.0

Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003
 
  • Institutions drawing their full-time undergraduates substantially from three downstate regions (Mid-Hudson, Long Island, and New York City) will experience the fastest growth in full-time undergraduate enrollment. These three regions will account for 78 percent of the projected growth in enrollment (Table 3, Table 4, and Figure 3) though they recently made up 68 percent of the total New York State population (New York State Statistical Yearbook External Link Image Icon, 2001, p.7). This discrepancy results from differences in projected population growth by region. As a result of projected growth patterns, upstate regions will see their shares of the higher education market drop or grow at a slower rate than will downstate regions. An important point is that upstate regions are not necessarily losing population; their populations may grow more slowly than those of the three downstate regions.
  • Changes in enrollment are not constant across sectors, types of students, and regions of enrollment (Tables 1, 2, and 3). For example, in the Western region, part-time undergraduates are expected to decrease while full-time undergraduates increase, due to the different age groups and regional migration of students enrolled at each level.

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